>> msnbc political analyst and former chairman of the republican national committee and a man who has never botched an easy pop fly -- >> no. >> also, pulitzer prize winning editorle writer for "the washington post" and the man we all go to if we have baseball questions, jonathan capehart. >> and in new york, mike barnicle. mike, last night the national league didn't look like aaa, did they? >> they came out of the box against justin verlander, eight on the board, that game was over about 16 seconds into the game. >> so back, you know, in the '70s, back i guess even before then, everybody stopped and watched the all-star game. is it as big a deal today as it was back in the '60s and the '70s? >> no. >> does anybody care anymore? >> i'm sure people care. i mean, you know -- >> other than phil griffin. >> yeah. i care. >> i care. >> legitimate baseball fans care, but it certainly is not as

big a deal as it used to be because of interleague play. we see different players from different teams in both leagues all during the year. you can get any game you want on your baseball package on cable. doesn't have the same allure that it used to, certainly. >> yeah. mika. >> yeah. >> the battle over the bush tax cuts. >> here we go again. >> here we go. >> now it's -- because we were talking yesterday on the set in new york about the limit, the $250,000 limit. that could come back. it's growing over how much of the bush-era tax cuts to extend just for the middle class, or, perhaps, for the wealthiest americans as well. both candidates invoked the 42nd president bill clinton to frame their strategies yesterday. take a listen. >> i mean, the very idea of raising taxes on small business and job creators at the very time we need more jobs, is the sort of thing only an extreme liberal could come up with. this is the sort of thing that used to be in the democratic

party in the times past. bill clinton called himself a new democrat. he put that behind him. he believed in smaller government, reformed welfare as we knew it and tried to get the economy going with trade and other provisions, lower taxes. look, new democrats have done some good things. a lot of republicans have done some good things. but this old-style liberalism of bigger and bigger government and bigger and bigger taxes has got to end and we will end it in november. >> anybody making over $250,000 a year, including me, we'd go back to the tax rates that we were paying under bill clinton. which by the way, was a time when our economy created nearly 23 million new jobs, the biggest budget surplus in history, and created plenty of millionaires to boot. >> you know, mika, i have a couple thoughts. first of all, back in 1999. >> yes. >> when we were all going down and we filled the tidal basin. >> left with good. >> with kerosene and we were

dipping our torches in to make that walk up to the capitol and impeach bill clinton i never thought a republican would be invoking the good old days of bill clinton. much has changed in 13 years. it's a strange world. that's what eight years of deficits will do for you. secondly, were i barack obama, i might not bring up bill clinton and tax cuts because bill clinton is, of course, a guy that said, we need to cut corporate taxes, bill clinton's a guy that says, we don't need to raise taxes on anybody. i think he said that to harvey on cnn. that's a tougher -- it's a tougher pull for him. >> i wonder what bill clinton would think of what the president is proposing right now and perhaps it's a good idea -- >> i think he already said he's against it. >> say nice thing about bill clinton right now. talk about how much he loves bill clinton and then tell him to keep his mouth shut. michael steele. >> i think that's a fair point. i'm intrigued by the whole idea

of this conversation to begin with. this invocation of bill clinton is nice, but what they fail to acknowledge is that what spurred that growth that they're talking about was not the tax rates that the top earners were paying, was the cut in capital gains that spurred those owners of industry and small businesses to go and invest in that economy that was being created and supported by welfare reform and the like. so you've got to look at the total package of what bill clinton did. he cut spending, working with newt gingrich in the republican house at the time, they cut the capital gains as they increased the rates for top earners to 39%. but keep this point in mind, taxes for the top rate earners go up to 43% beginning next year anyway. so, now you're talking about if you want to take that number higher, you're talking close to 50% for those top earners if he gets his way, the president gets his way.

>> and -- >> tax cuts. >> mike, we don't know what's going to happen. there's going to be a grand compromise. what i don't understand, though, and i didn't understand before, when the president had a chance two years ago to raise taxes on millionaires or at least take that as his position, he passed it. he just -- he let that go by. i don't understand why he's not starting at a million dollars, just for purely political purposes, because there are a lot of people up in massachusetts right now who are trying to decide between candidates like elizabeth warren and scott brown who are going to say, i make $250,000, i got six employees, if they raise my taxes, i'm going to have to let somebody go. >> joe, i mean, you happen to be right on point here in your first day back right out of the box. >> shocking. >> throwing fastballs. >> shocking for any day that i'm here. >> just talk.

>> first of all -- i don't understand -- >> what did they feed you? >> i don't understand it because i don't know enough about it. i'm wondering whether this insistence on the president's part that the ceiling be $250,000 rather than a million dollars, i'm wondering a couple things about it. why so many democrats, democrats, want the ceiling at a million dollars rather than the president's insistence on $250,000. and i'm wondering if the insistence on $250,000 comes out of focus group information that the campaign is conducting, rather than sitting down and figuring out the best economic policy for this country. that i think is going to be a big question that's going to have to be answered in the next several weeks. >> i think the reason why, andrea, claire mccaskill is campaigning across missouri and i'll guarantee you, because i always found them, there are people who make $200,000,

$250,000, $300,000, they have three or four or five employees, the little nerds that write the columns say only 2% of the people file as a small business owner. doesn't matter how they file their taxes as a business. it's still out of their pocket because they're sole proprietors however they file it. however they give their money to the irs. so, a tax increase takes away from their bottom line regardless. >> and you have the other argument as well that those 2% or 3% are actually more of the job creators. >> of course. >> in those small businesses. look, you've got claire mccaskill, bill nelson, john tester and chuck schumer representing people in new york and he says, you know, people living in new york make $250,000, their expenses are huge and they're not just business people. there are people actually that make that amount of money in two-income families. >> jonathan -- i'm sorry.

>> i want to ask what these job creators have been doing with these tax cuts so far and how their situations have been improved greatly and how they're hiring so many people and how this would all stop. it's ridiculous. >> it's not ridiculous. >> come on. have they worked? >> we're talking about people right now, we're not talking about millionaires. >> i know. >> we're talking about people making -- >> i would prefer that. >> $250,000, $300, $350 struggling to keep their businesses open. they're not creating jobs right now. >> so -- >> they're fledgling to keep their businesses open. >> the tax cuts in place by bush haven't worked? >> the tax cuts put in place by bush, afforded by president obama, these are really obama tax cuts -- >> they haven't spurred growth, have they? >> we're going through a terrible stretch right now. >> right. >> the question is, when you're sick, how much -- how much medicine -- >> so that concept -- >> in 2001 one -- >> that concept applies to tax

cuts but doesn't apply to the deficit and spending. >> mika -- >> you know because i think the liberal argument or the democrats would argue you don't cut spending on certain programs when we're in a bad situation. so -- same argument. >> on the 250,000 versus million dollar threshold i'm going to add on to what barnicle said and wonder if this is a negotiating position. >> sure. >> the president saying $250,000 -- >> will end up at a million. >> and the other thing, in terms of taxes, there's a story on the second page two of the "washington post," federal kax rates hit 30-year low in 2009. it's a combination -- >> this is the congressional budget office data. this is a result of two things. one, tax cuts put in place by president obama in his first year in office, but also a reduction in the amount of income by the wealthiest earners. >> their incomes dropped so quickly. >> incomes dropped by i think it says here income fell 12% on

average from 2007 to twine. when republicans say the president wants to jack up and raise taxes on the middle class and everyone -- here you have this -- >> but wait -- >> the president of the administration has been saying over and over -- >> jonathan -- >> here's congressional budget office report that shows that. >> he can go out and say that, but to the woman that owns a small business in claire mccaskill's home state that makes $265,000 last year, and her receipts are down because the economy is struggling, she doesn't care what the cbo says. she knows that she can't -- and be you may be right, this may be ultimately a negotiation, but this president's been the campaigner in chief for the past year. i'm not even asking a policy question this morning. i'm asking a political question, why in july, would you put targets on the backs of a lot of small business owners at -- instead of just saying, doing

what chuck shoo maker has been saying all along, put it at a million dollars and we're not having this conversation. we're still talking about bryce harper dropping the ball. >> in particular -- >> let's change the subject. >> i want to go back to jonathan. just -- that's you bring up a good point and we could debate the cbo numbers. but why? >> to answer your political question, i think it goes back to what i said before. i wonder if it's part of a negotiating position. no matter what the president proposes he puts the republicans on the defensive. they have to come back and say, well no, we're not going to do what you want to do, whether it's $250,000 or a million. as we've seen for -- since at least 2010 when the new congress came in, republicans on capitol hill aren't going to do anything. >> mike barnicle, if i were a republican on the campaign trail right now i would have said three weeks ago, i didn't have a whole lot to campaign on other than overblown rhetoric, i can talk about the obama health care tax. i don't care what mitt romney's stupid people said. obama passed and it's a law of

the land a health care tax. >> messed that up. >> and obama is now passing -- try to push a small business tax. i've got two taxes. that's all i'm talk about in my district between now and the campaign. i kick any democrat in a swing district across america legislatively. romney can't do this, but legislatively, this seems like the president's hurting his own cause. >> unless you consider the fact the two words you used that have been thrown around the table in the past two minutes both have incendiary value to voters. one word is taxes. as incendiary value to voters. the other word is millionaire as incendiary value to many, many voters. you use those two words both sides use those words and see where the fire starts burning most fiercely. >> i think they're right on target. >> my point! if he had made it a millionaire's tax barack obama wins going away and the republicans are sitting there looking like defenders of the

rich and wealthy. michael steele, that's my whole point. >> you've got it. >> if obama says, we're -- the president says, we're going -- you know what we're going to make those millionaires that got away with so much over the past decade, pay their fair share, i am ending the bush tax cuts for millionaires -- this is chuck schumer's position, and politically, this is the position by the way that politically i've been advocating for the president for two years now, even though i disagree with it, politically, he still insists going down to 250 with the small business owners. >> i don't understand why he wants to relit gait this because the million dollar threshold has been on the table a long time. the president certainly stumbled into. he's picked a fight unnecessarily on the heels of the health care vote, now as you apply put it -- >> you agree with me. >> if the president made this a millionaire's tax republicans would be screwed. >> a much harder slog for the gop on that. >> they get there --

>> they think that by separating this and saying that it is a millionaire's tax, what they think the advantage they're getting is we're giving a tax cut to the middle-income folks and forcing the republicans to defend a millionaire's tax. >> why don't you start at $1 million instead of $250,000. >> and this idea -- >> what you're doing -- >> i don't think it gains you any ground there. >> michael and joe, you're poking holes at a very good strategy and finding one thing wrong with it. the bottom line this whole thing plays into the president's message personally. protecting the middle class and quite frankly who is mitt romney and why won't he reveal his tax incomes. >> a lot of small business owners believe they make $250,000, they employ five -- >> there's a lot of people who think $250,000 is a lot of in uny. >> exactly. but they employ five or six people, make $250,000, they live in new york or they live in washington or they live in san francisco -- >> yeah. >> or in philadelphia or they live in baltimore, they live in

charlotte, they don't feel rich. >> but to joe's point -- >> they feel lucky like my dad felt lucky, my dad made a couple hundred thousands a year and felt the luckiest guy on earth, a small business owner at the end. >> to your point, another test today on the house floor of whether democrats in swing districts are going to stick with the president. that's on the health care. >> explain that. >> they're going to -- the republicans are forcing this vote which is purely symbolic. it's all politics. a vote on repealing health care. they can't win it not with the senate, not with the president holding a veto if anything were to get to his desk it's not going to get to his desk, they're forcing a lot of democrats to take an uncomfortable vote against what is in some districts an unpopular health care law. >> i see it as setting up the republicans to look obstructionist again and waste time. >> i hate to sound like a broken -- i don't know -- mike, answer if you have the answer or jonathan, whom ever, i don't

mean to sound like a broken record here, why not make your life easier, why not help claire mccaskill, help john tester, why not help moderate democrats across america, and set the limit at $1 million? instead of $250,000. >> that's a question for the administration, but clearly the administration and the re-election campaign has information that shows them that $250,000 -- and the overall message, mika was talking about before about fairness and income inequality and protecting the middle class, that overall message plays better and helps -- >> that does the trick politically, $250,000 is just as good for them as a million? >> it's -- >> is that what you're saying? >> it has to be. because the president has been harping on the $250,000 thresh hold, not just today, but he's been on this for at least a year. >> michael, do you agree $250,000, the white house

probably has polling that shows that $250,000 even if you're a small business owner living in boston, and you have five or six employees, is rich? >> yes. i think it's coming out of stuff like polling and focus group data, yeah. i do. unless the end game is for him to publicly put it on the republicans at some point in august or early september, when congress is reconvened, saying okay, fine, they want a million dollars, i'll give you a million dollars, you to give us, the democrats, the middle class, why. you have to do this. you want your million, here's what the middle class really needs. and see what they do then. >> and then i believe he would look like he is willing to compromise. >> yes. >> which is a great strategy. >> you know what, mika. >> what? >> he's only one man. he's only one man. >> exactly. >> he's only one man. he's only the president. >> perfect. >> how could he be so perfect?

how could he? >> you just know i'm right. coming up, democratic political strategist james carville joins us, former security adviser dr. zbigniew brzezinski, author of the book "the forever war," dexter filkins and former congresswoman jane harman. up next mike allen with the top stories in the politico playbook. first bill karins is back with a check on the forecast. >> hey, bill! >> yes. >> how are you doing, buddy? missed you badly. >> couple great days in the adirondacks, fishing, boating. i would like to say i'm glad to be back. >> well, listen, we're glad you're back. thanks for coming back. >> that's a little much there. >> good morning, everyone. let me give you the forecast. as you know we got rid of the heat wave last week. beautiful in so many areas of the country. humidity is down low too, especially the northern half. the worst weather in the country this morning, unfortunately for our friends in south florida you are getting drenched. yellows and reds are heavy torrential rains. tropical moisture from fort lauderdale through miami down

into the keys. eventually that's going to work over towards naples too. keep that in mind. south florida, best chance for airport delays and any trouble on the roads. i mentioned it's a beautiful mid summer like day. it's warm in the afternoon but this is how we like it. perfect pool and beach weather. if you chose this week for vacation you chose wisely through the mid-atlantic and portions of the great lakes. temperatures still warm, it's still 90s from chicago to denver to billings but not that 100-degree heat. so we can deal with this. this is what we call typical middle summer type weather. and peek at tomorrow's forecast. heavy rain coming through the southeast, especially areas that desperately need it, we're crossing our fingers that the heavy rain gets into arkansas and eventually up into kentucky and to the ohio valley. we desperately need it. we've heard reports of how bad the corn crop is. we're going to feel it in the supermarkets if we don't get rain in a hurry. leaving you with a shot, washington, d.c., beautiful sunrise. nice day today up near 90. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. the postal service is critical to our economy,

delivering mail, medicine and packages. yet the house is considering a bill to close thousands of offices, slash service and layoff over 100,000 workers. the postal service is recording financial losses, but not for reasons you might think. the problem ? a burden no other agency or company bears. a 2006 law that drains $5 billion a year from post office revenue while the postal service is forced to overpay billions more into federal accounts. house bill 2309 is not the answer.

mitt's way ahead of president obama in fund-raising. and i think it's because he's, i don't know, he's got some sort of genius. he's a natural born showman, mitt romney. you've seen his latest campaign commercial? >> mitt romney's march to the white house continues with an astonishing $106 million raised in june. what's mitt's secret? vision and leadership of course. but mostly, women are responding to magic mitt ♪ it's raining men hallelujah it's raining men ♪

>> mitt romney, for america. >> that's pretty good. >> we're not watching this campaign closely enough. i missed that. >> i would notice that. >> i was with the kids in nantucket and didn't see that speech. >> you were definitely -- >> you know what we missed quickly -- >> yeah. >> a story out of washington about this mayor, corrupt -- >> andrea? >> corruption of this mayor in washington. he gets elected. everybody knows, with a slush fund and nobody has picked it up. >> finally, his victory is tainted by a $600,000 slush fund which is a lot of money. >> "the washington post" finally brings it up. the national news media -- >> nobody in the national news media is pointing out there's corruption in washington. i answered my own question. >> we've ignored what's under our face, crimes, school, pay no attention. >> do more of that. >> it always shocked me what

happened just in an cost ya, just down the -- other side of pennsylvania avenue. >> time to take a look at the morning papers. we'll start with miami harold in our parade of papers. the paper says the u.s. released one of guantanamo bay's longest held prisoner confessed al qaeda foot soldier sometimes a driver for osama bin laden. ebrahim al cosy pleaded guilty to terror charges in 2010 in exchange for a a two-year sentence. the first convicted war criminal to be released home since 2008. >> "the wall street journal" says china is ramping up its state spending to encounter a sharp decline in growth. they've approved construction for two new steel plants despite a global oversupply in the steel industry. mika, this didn't make the china problem any better because there were stories a year ago that their hyper spending on transportation projects was

exaggerating their growth prospects. this is a bubble that is going to explode. >> it's always been the case with china. that's why you can't believe a lot of the data that come out of china. they create the businesses and the jobs that they need to absorb the population and to give people jobs. and to take care of this movement from the rural to the cities. you know, they fake it and they are creating a bubble. >> fake it exactly. >> something reassuring about it in the national security folks say one of the reasons we don't really face a military threat from them they have so many internal problems they can't. >> they have to worry more about internal security than external war. "usa today," ohio man cleaning out his grandfather's attic discovered a hidden treasure of baseball cards dating back to the early 1900s. the cards are in mint condition. >> no way. >> includes names like ty kobss,

cy young and honus wagner. experts conferm the cards are real and worth $3 million. antique road show -- >> 1910. >> the honus wagner card is like the holy grail. only two or three of them and worth about as mika indicated $3 million, $4 million. >> it would be like having a bryce harper card. >> or a mike trout card. >> i can get you one of those. >> verlander perhaps, the greatest pitcher in the world. excuse me. >> mike, will you ever go to cooperstown with me if i pay you enough money? >> i would go there for free any time any -- any time. >> the greatest small town in america, joe. >> i haven't -- i have not been up there since, believe it or not, my dad took me up there the day that whitey ford got inducted into the hall of fame and i have not been up there since. and i would love for mike barnicle to go with me. >> that would -- >> the guy who runs the hall of

fame is from newton, massachusetts, jeff idleson. it's a great place to visit. great family place. you arrive in cooperstown, you park your car and that's the last time you get in your car. you walk everywhere. nice village. >> road trip. >> let's do a show from up there. >> i would like to do that. >> andrea has been there. >> only because i was covering the camp, the hillary campaign for senate. >> andrea, pat moynihan lived about 15 miles from cooperstown. >> in fact, i did once go with pat moynihan. >> of course you did. really. >> that's where she was kicking off the race. we're joined by politico's chief white house correspondent mike allen with the morning playbook. let's start with michele obama and how she's playing a role in the president's campaign as it pertains maybe with the middle class. >> this is fascinating. she became such an asset at the end of the 2008 campaign after a rough start. but now they're using her in a different way. one of the few barriers between president obama and voters has been these little bit of exotic,

the harvard thing, and she's been helping with that, as she's been on the road. talking a lot about her -- the itty-bitty apartment she calls it that her mom grew up in, her dad going off to the water plant at the same time he was fighting ms. she has an authentically middle class experience that they're rolling out as another way to try to contrast with the romney background. >> there was a question i had about a politico story the other day, there were democrats concerned she wasn't campaigning for house members. and it hasn't always been the case that first ladies would go out and do these kinds of races? >> as you know, the house members have been whining about the president not doing enough for them either. jim mess seen in and david plouffe have been blunt, first thing's first, they're worried about themselves. house and senate later. >> her story resonated with the middle class and the challenges they face at this point. >> she's been a big part of the

president's effort to reach out to veterans, big program to hire veterans, something else that's up on politico today, specifically young veterans are a key part of this very narrow demographic stew they're trying to put together. your older veterans are pretty likely to go republicans. but they think they have a good chance with vets who are coming back. the unemployment rate was sky high, double digit. >> it's incredible. >> coming down a little bit. >> in fairness she and dr. biden have been doing all that good work for the veterans since long before the campaign. >> yeah. >> hiring our heros has been throughout the administration. >> fantastic. >> talk about some of the southern governors deciding to take a pass on medicaid, they're looking at the supreme court decision and making some pretty dramatic decisions. >> yeah. and joe here's the fascinating thing about this, the house keeps voting to repeal obama care which does nothing. but this does a lot. there are now five republican governors, texas, south carolina, louisiana, who have said that they're not going to

take florida, who are saying they're not going to take the medicaid money. politico added it up and we found this means one in five of the people who would have been eligible for additional coverage under obamacare, now are not. there's a bunch more governors still looking at it. >> what's the justification? for opting out? >> they're saying we've been given the chance by the supreme court to get free one thing from washington, we're going to do it virginia governor bob mcdonnell is thinking about it. another big state -- >> you could potentially have 26 governors, democrats say that won't happen -- >> what does that mean? >> it's half the country would not be buying in. you know, theoretically the whole thing works because of scale and if you don't have the size of people getting into those exchanges air got a real problem. >> they were counting on those states, all states, participating so when you had the 26 states sue, and then win on that point, on the medicaid point, then all of a sudden

you've thrown the door open with respect to how you're going to fund obamacare going down the road. >> the counter argument, there's going to be pressure on those governors to take the free dough. >> and we saw in the state of florida that opted out of other federal programs 10, 15 years ago, they eventually came into it because the weight on the population grows exponentially as time passes. the governors have to sit there and look at this pot of money, but always know as governors do, it comes with strings attached and that's one of the big concerns republican governors have. >> the slew ramp is big. we find out that obamacare did not save any money as original had been promised and now it's not even working on the narrow grounds where it was sold. >> that's right. >> all right. mike allen, thank you very much. >> state visit. >> i have a confession to make. >> here we go. >> i know one place where obamacare is working. >> florida. >> no. i mean, is i'm going to get killed for saying this, i'm like

having breakfast saturday morning and i'm eating my pancakes and my wife asks me, what would have happened if the supreme court had repealed obamacare. and i'm sitting there going -- i'm sitting there, i look up, why do you ask? she said, because your 24-year-old son decided not to get health care at his employer. >> he's on your plan. >> and i looked up. i said, do you mean the scarborough family is buying in to obamacare! she said yes. >> busted. >> i have been calling my son for the past three days, he's not picking up the phone. i think -- i think -- >> just another obama voter. >> no -- >> my son may be. i don't know. i know this, he's not getting money taken out of his checkbook by -- >> i wonder how many republicans in washington have children who are buying into the plan?

>> i don't know. i wonder how many republicans are as out of touch with what their sons are doing with their health care plans as me. >> but that's -- i bet you there are most of them. >> oh, my lord, yes, of course. >> yeah. >> okay. >> of course. >> just another -- >> i pushed the pancakes away and just walked outside in a huff. >> like, thank you, stimulus. this is bad, i'll take it. sports is next with jonathan capehart. makes no sense. highlights from last night's all-star game. this will be awkward. back in a moment. welcome to hotels.com. summer road trip, huh? as the hotel experts, finding you the perfect place is all we do.

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are you nervous some. >> no. >> you look so ready. it's like you're like perched, ready to go. >> can i get to sports please. >> like sports center -- >> do you know what was on last night. >> of course. >> for the 83rd annual all-star game. the national league look for its third win over the american league. the senior circuit didn't waste any time getting on the board.

ryan braun smokes the pitch off the wall in right. the giants melky cabrera will score and the national league takes a 1-0 lead. >> this is a tentative pass. >> later in the inning, verlander in trouble with the bases loaded, pablo sanibel -- >> when something happens like that, you have to come up with a sound. like pow! something like that. when they hit the ball hard. >> run scores, sanibel -- >> now let's make it -- look at this. >> melky cabrera cakes -- >> ka-zou! >> make it 8-0. he tries to slap the fan of former teammate robinson canoe but he leaves cabrera hanging. it wasn't all highlights for the national league. fifth inning, david wright, one back to the pitcher and 19-year-old bryce harper -- >> bryce harper. >> you made me mess that up. i got it right every time!

>> bottom half of the same inning, mike hits the routine -- is this mike? >> you want me to help you? >> i do not. loses it in the twilight and the ball drops behind him. not all a great debut for harper went 0 for 1 with a walk and strikeout. problems in the field. sixth inning, 40-year-old chipper jones, set to retire at the end of the season, comes to the plate, and a standing ovation. he sneaks one through the right side for a single and stands up first base soaking in the last all-star game. >> good for chipper! all right. >> national league wins 8-0. 11 pitchers begin combined for the shutout and melky cabrera named the game's most valuable player in his all star debut. >> what about chipper? it was nice to see chipper. he's been around so long. >> yeah. >> and he's just -- he has -- he's given his all every day. >> every day. >> same team, 21 years, same uniform, only two managers,

terrific guy, real leader, legitimate hall of famer, and ian kinsler, the second baseman as jonathan showed the clip, clearly pulled up a little short, didn't really, you know, bust his pick to throw chipper out at first base because he wanted him on base with a base hit in his last all-star appearance. >> and tony la russa's last game. >> oh! >> what's that? >> tony la russa's last game. >> was that la louisa's last game? alex, what were you saying in my ear? say it to everybody. >> people wanted brice to start third base for the mets but sanibel got the start. he had the key triple in the inning. >> there you go. >> alex knows everything. >> yeah. >> i would have said that. >> maybe people working behind the camera -- >> he's adorable. little in the dark. maybe we ought to get him a little light back there. >> sports center is calling i'm sure, john than. >> there's a call from bristol,

connecticut. >> yeah. >> for you. >> you want to move up to bristol? >> to connecticut? >> yeah. >> not so much. >> oh, my lord. >> bruce harper on the phone. >> coming up next, we have mika's must-read opinion pages. great job, jonathan. >> it was horrible. >> we have a new poll, numbers released on the general election that show a stark difference between married and unmarried voters. this is a massive gap. we'll tell you about it when we come back on "morning joe."

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aunt, great uncle. those walls were awful thin. i wonder how my parents did it, but that's a different story. i know you don't know anything about that. i know none of you and your families have done the same thing, understand that at all, i know that. >> i love him. >> kind of awkward. >> talking about his parents having -- >> stop it. >> hashtag awkward. >> wow. relations, wow. >> you know you love him. >> was that necessary, though? >> it was funny. >> little more information -- >> i laughed. tmi. >> he's only one man. you know you liked it. >> i think he could have left it out. does anybody here -- >> are we talking about the same thing. >> anybody think that was -- >> let's talk about the millionaire's tax. >> necessary for biden to talk about that? i don't think so. >> it's fine. it's not like he was talking about anything wrong. >> i'm not saying he was.

>> all right. >> not that there's anything wrong with that. >> "the new york times" editorial. mr. romney's financial black hole, what a shock. "the new york times" is writing about mitt romney's finances. >> really? do you think i shouldn't read it now? >> no. >> because i want to. i think it's interesting. >> let's keep this narrative going at least until after the election. >> keep it going until he relee, his tax returns. mr. romney has resisted all demands for more disclosure leading to growing criticism from democrats he's trying to hide his fortune and tax schemes from the public. given the troubling suspicions about his finances he needs to release many more returns and quickly open his books to full scrutiny. mr. romney has not explained the nature of his separation agreement with bain capital the private equity firm he founded and left in 1999. last month his trust reported receiving $2 million from bain as part of unpaid earnings from his work there. of the 138 bain funds organized in the cayman islands, mr. romney has interests in 12,

worth up to $30 million. according to "vanity fair." though the romney campaign has often distanced itself from bain's recent corporate takeover work voters have no way of knowing how much the candidate has received from bain since he left or how much is coming. >> is this a big deal? >> no. >> why not? >> because. i mean, at the end of the day people are concerned about their own tax returns because they haven't had a paycheck in the last year to file taxes and so the reality is people want to get back to work, i think that's the focus of the campaign. this is good fodder for democrats to talk about. >> what if this guy is moving millions of dollars into the cayman islands, don't you think some -- >> well, if there was -- >> swing voters might be upset. >> i tonigdon't know if they wi. at his level he's been audited. run for governor. could show you as a former state official you post your income tax returns and the reporters looking at your income tax returns. if there's something there it would have come up by now. >> no.

he hasn't released it. >> something mitt romney won't do except for the two years he put out. you've put out your tax returnsp. >> so has every nominee and his own father set the standard, george romney did, saying 12 years need to be put out because anything else could be a fluke. >> and actual tax returns, not, you know, broad outlines. >> i'm not sure it penetrates yet but i think there is certainly a long tradition that he should be putting it out there. >> right. >> he gave 23 years to john mccain when being considered for vice president. >> 23 years. >> i'll move on to the polls. i think he should release the tax returns and get it over. >> i agree with that. i think it's much ado about nothing. >> really? new quinnipiac polls continue to show a tight race between president obama and mitt romney. the president leading his republican challenger by just 3 points nationally. among married voters, however, mitt romney enjoys a double digit advantage leading the president by 13 points. unmarried voters, overwhelmingly prefer president obama.

he leads romney by 20 points, 54 to 34 among voters who are single. >> mike barnicle, why? >> no idea. i was just looking at that and wondering about it. i have no idea. none. zero. >> a lot of it does have to do with women. i find some of the most strident in the twitter universe and campaign trail on both extremes, the most strident voters on the left are single women and some of the most strident on the right are married women and i must say some of the most vicious, hateful, tweets and e-mails i get -- hold on a second -- are from republican married women who call me a comi and this and that and a traitor. there is -- for some reason i -- i mean, i'm exaggerating and having a lot of fun here, but

there is a -- wow, what a big divide between single women and married women. it's huge. >> and that's -- that was the case four years ago with president obama when he was first running. there seems to be this divide among the married and the single generational divide, perhaps, as well. jonathan? >> i'm with barnicle. i have no idea why that divide is there. >> isn't that crazy? it's -- it has -- it's been growing for some time. >> i don't know why they don't love you. >> oh. >> well, let's see -- >> oh, they do. still ahead, democratic strategist james carville. >> i'm just not a loveable guy. >> really? >> yeah. >> is that it? >> unlike james carville who will be here. this is huge! >> loveable is the word i think of -- >> stan greenberg, i love those guys. >> james carville, loveable right there. political pollster stan greenberg as well, standing by in the green room. more "morning joe" in just a moment. the medicare debate continues in washington...

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i mean the very idea of raising taxes on small business and job creators at the very time we need more jobs is the sort of thing only an extreme liberal could come up with. this is the sort of thing that used to be in the democratic party in the times past. bill clinton called himself a new democrat. he put that behind him. he believed in smaller government, reformed welfare as we knew it and tried to get the economy going with trade and other provisions, lower taxes.

look, new democrats have done some good things. a lot of republicans have done some good things. but this old-style liberalism of bigger and bigger government and bigger and bigger taxes has got to end and we will end it in november. >> anybody making over $250,000 a year, including me, we'd go back to the tax rates that we were paying under bill clinton. which by the way, it was a time when our economy created nearly 23 million new jobs, the biggest budget surplus in history, and created plenty of millionaires to boot. >> okay. welcome back all you extreme liberals to "morning joe." still with us andrea mitchell and michael steele. mike barnicle in new york. joining us from the table there, democratic political consultant and former lead strategist for president clinton's campaign, james carville and democratic pollster stan greenberg. out with a new book "it's the middle class stupid! ." perfect timing for that as well,

gentlemen. welcome to the show. >> good to be here. >> just read the -- let's get to the married part of the quinnipiac poll. >> a couple of "i have no ideas" on the set. think you can figure it out, the new quinnipiac polls show a tight race between president obama and mitt romney. the polls showing the president leading his republican challenger three points nationally. however look at this, among married voters, mitt romney enjoys a double digit advantage leading the president by 13 points. unmarried voters overwhelmingly prefer president obama. he leads romney by 20 points. 54 to 34 among voters who are single. >> so you guys, break this down for us quickly, we're just curious, this divide has been growing for some time. start with the pollster stan, why? >> appreciate it. it is central to what's going on and part of the reason i think why the romney campaign and republicans are so determined to win this election because the

forces are moving against them. we have a majority unmarried in the country. unmarried women could be a quarter of the electorate, voted 69% for obama in 2008. they're not quite back to that number and their turnout -- hard hit by the economy. that's why if you look yesterday at the president's comments at who's leading with, that he gets that these people got to see the relevance of this election. this says they are, you know, that margin, that separation is picking up and is central to the democrat has to win. >> let me ask you a question we talked earlier about, $250,000 versus a millionaire's tax. i said if you're in a swing district or if you're claire mccaskill, why doesn't the president set it at a million dollars and run against the millionaires and tell the republicans you go out and defend millionaire tax increases. why not get down to 250 where bill clinton might say might not

want to do that to small business owners. >> i think 250 isn't what it was in 2008. i think the president has been consistent on that. speaking to bill clinton i was glad to see mitt romney say bill clinton never raised taxes. hello. then his campaign said obama didn't raise taxes. i don't know. 50/50. >> he remembers when we had a democratic president that never raised taxes. my recollection is we did. i'm not going to argue with romney. >> 1993 -- >> i'm sitting here because he raised taxes in 1993 because i was first republican elected in my district in 1873, specifically because he did. hey, so james, let me ask you something. as far as politicians go, you worked for i mean the best. i mean, bill clinton, knew how to get out on the campaign trail and get the job done. how frustrating is it for you, even though you're a supporter of barack obama, how frustrating is it for you that this guy,

president obama, doesn't seem to know how to drive an obvious narrative right out there in front of him? >> well, i'll put it this way. it was frustrating. to be fair in the last three or four weeks i think they've gotten better. stan and i have had many conversations about that. a good story in the paper today of him trying to help middle-class people fill out their tax reforms. i think he's been all over the romney campaign. i think they kicked him in the gut on the immigration thing. they were shrewd on the tax thing. look at "the wall street journal" and bill crystal and all those, cause a big change with romney. i think the president has had some difficulties in connecting here in the past, but i think he's getting closer into his groove. i've not been reduck tant to krits -- reluctant to criticize his campaign but at the same time, i will [ inaudible ] myself of a fan of what he's been doing of late. >> stan greenberg, amuse me of something republicans love to say, a belief i've had for some

time, that class warfare doesn't work. i used that from my own personal experiences, my dad, mom, very middle class. never worked on them even though they were fdr democrats that became republicans. but people like me always point to 2000. and say look, that class warfare stuff didn't work for al gore. you specifically go after that and say, it wasn't the class warfare arguments that didn't work for al gore it was al gore that didn't work for al gore. >> it's true. the reason al gore lost was the debates and the fact is that the american people concluded we don't want al gore in our living room every day for four years. they didn't like him. particularly in the contrast with bush. but the time when al gore went ahead is when he waged class warfare in your term, speaking about making the country and make our economy work for everybody. that was his main message. when he went way ahead in the race. in this book we talk about it. class warfare does work.

i prefer and inclusive centered on the middle class point of view which is what we argue for in this book, but, you know, people want the rich to pay their fair share. they think it is a critical part of having an economy that works, having deficit reduction plan that works. investing in the middle class. and so the start is, get it right, the president i think is on the right point. you would call it class warfare. we call it common sense. >> so, james carville, i think that leads us to the book, it's "the middle class stupid! "who is the title speaking? could it be speaking to the candidate and more on how the president is sharpening his message on this, don't you think the bush-era tax cuts for those who make over $250,000 is a good start and remember, if you raise it to a million, you lose a lot of revenue. >> don't talk to me. he's right there. talk to him! talk to carville! we don't get him every day. talk to carville. >> carville, he's fine.

>> go ahead, james. >> i think 250, a million, look, i think the president is fine. our point of the book is that there's been an ongoing destruction in the american middle class. it didn't start in 2008 with the financial crisis. it hurt like heck. the way we describe it, somebody having pneumonia got run over by a truck. there hasn't been any income growth in the middle class with the exception of the '90s. you have people who had jobs are sleeping in parking lots. median income in this country, lost 40% of the net worth in the last four years. we have this horrible humanitarian crisis and we seem to be doing everything but talking about it. we're raising the cost of education. look at this thing on student loans trying to make it more expensive, health care costs have skyrocketed out of control and somebody has to step in and say we are losing the identity of who we are. this is 75% of our fellow countrymen whose lives at best have gotten no better, at worse

have gotten worse. we think this is a national priority, it should be issue number one in this campaign and even beyond this campaign. >> don't we have an additional dilemma problem, whatever you want to call it, it is that the children of the middle class, many of the children of the middle class, they no longer are going to be able to lead the lives we grew up as members of the middle class. they're not going to know, our kids, are not going to know, you know, nurses and city workers and the guy -- the people at the gas station. there's going to be a segregated society based upon income, affluence. >> and you know, both generations are conscious of it. the parents are conscious of it. they know the kids are moving in with them. their dream of being middle class was that their kids would be able to do better and education would enable them to do better. the kids themselves know the jobs are paying less, education costs are killing them and all know that big things are at risk in this country. i mean the good news is that

they know it. they're waiting for leaders who will step forward and do something about it. that's the good news. >> waiting for leaders. wow. >> james, let me ask you a question about deficit reduction and how that it ins into this. the white house is saying that the reason that they -- one of the reasons they went for 250 rather than the million dollars, is $300 billion that would be lost for future deficit reduction. >> right. >> do americans in that context care about deficit reduction? whom are they appealing to there? >> of course they care about deficit reduction and, of course they care about spending. but there's two groups here. if you think the biggest problem we're facing is reducing our deficit you say we have to cut medicare, makes logical sense. if you say the biggest problem this country has is destruction of the middle class and how do we keep people in the middle class you say we have to reduce health care costs. it you reduce health health care costs you help the middle class. do what the republicans want to do and shift the cost of medicare to the individuals, to

the tune of $6,000 a year, you're going to clobber people. i mean utterly clobber them. so our point is, is that, of course, the deficit is an important issue but first you have to look at its effect on the middle class. when you do that it will lead you to different policy conclusions. $250,000, $300,000, that's a lot of potatoes. >> and we know from britain, i worked for the labor party in britain, we know from britain a policy focus on deficit reduction called austerity, with tax increases and spending cuts, produces less deficit reduction than a policy that centers on growth. we think focusing on growth of the middle class and addressing costs, we need to be brave about addressing health care costs, the most important way to bring down the deficit, but also help the middle class. so get the priorities right. >> michael steele? >> gentlemen, a quick question, more in the political realm and carville, right up your alley, you have a lot of democrats around the country who a little skittish, those in moderate or

marginal districts, how do you see this playing out for a lot of democrats, some of whom are not going to the convention with the excuse i have to deal with my campaign back at home, others of whom are not overly excited about the white house putting their thing on the campaign. in light of everything we've talked about from health care to deficit spending how do you see this playing out with the democrat rank and file with respect to those members of congress in particular, who are trying to keep their seats this fall? >> right. you got a president in some districts that people are in, going to be less every four years. i think democrats should take up the middle-class mantra here. show the way that they're different. this is the thing we're clearly bleed deeply that this is what people are looking for. they're looking for politicians to come up and say this what is we ought to do to help the middle class, this what is i'm going to do to keep people in

it, from falling out of it. so, sure, you're going to have some republicans that are not going to go to the convention, skittish about things, but that happens literally every four years. >> so, james and stan, i remember back speaking to my parents, i remember we're from the south, we moved to upstate new york and as you know, upstate new york just got slaughtered in the '70s and '80s and i remember seeing steel companies shut down and i remember my parents talking and like '72 and '73 and saying this isn't the america that we grew up in and there is the oil embargo and opec. you look at the numbers and the middle class has actually been in the decline since 1973. the average wage for workers since 1973 has been declining. a lot has to do with the drop in union -- the union payrolls because of the drop in manufacturing base. how do we turn that around?

that is a 30-whatever -- i went to the university of alabama. only thing -- i'm not good at adding but carville, as you know, we only have to count to number one. so -- but what is that, from '73 to now, that's a lot of years. >> you're exactly right. because, you know, you had -- what happened, you had political change that took place in the '70s. big political upheaval in the '70s. a decade earlier you had real growth in america. what voters now know is that this is three decades. it's not just us analysts who know it. we're just capturing what people -- we listen to people. we're just capturing what they -- they know this is a three-decade problem. and they're looking for three-decade solution as to why they are impatient with republicans when they call for tax cuts because they know that doesn't address it. they're impatient, to be honest with short-term spending, you know, as a way of addressing it. they want long-term future oriented solutions. what are you doing about the big problem, which they totally get.

>> joe, what you say is on the mark. they know this is a long-term thing. anybody that comes and says, hey in the next year, we're going going to turn this thing around be skeptical of that. readjusted their lives. they've taken older children in, tried to learn a new job skill, they've adjusted what they do. anything to do with education, that's generally the first thing you hear, something that we can do. give people access to more training, more education, people have to change, they have to do things like that. you hear it all the time. every time you do, you do one of these focus groups, literally somebody, or more than somebody, just breaks down and cries. >> you know, you've been pretty good at messaging, it's the economy stupid, from 1992 on, stuff like that. what do you figure is going on or not going on within the context of the obama re-election campaign in that the pivotal point of this presidency i would

argue is the health care achievement. >> right. >> and for 65 years, since harry truman, trying to get some sense of a national health care policy. it's finally achieved, 65 years later. you can make the argument that the republicans opposition to it is basically no, it's no good, and they have no alternative. what is the messaging from the white house, that says no no, follow me, i planted this flag, follow me. >> i'm going to defer to my colleague mr. greenberg here. we have the same view, but he has studied this view a little deeper than i and i completely agree with him. i'm going to let him do it. >> i wish the president had been an educated president along -- >> what do you mean? >> explaining to the american people and doing health care reform on this scale, you have to come back again and again explaining where you're going. the economy is the same thing. on health care wish is so complex just to really be explaining what this thing does. now i think the supreme court decision is an opportunity. i think he now has an opportunity to say, this is

about affordability, about costs. not about the uninsured. this is about getting everybody in, getting exchanges and having a system that you can reduce costs. and now, what we suggest in this book, is go much further. you know, double down on your own health care reform and really show how you can bring down costs. and that's when it becomes a middle-class nieconomic message. the cost reduction is in this program. talk about in your second term what you will do to make it better. >> the more he focuses on the first term the worse he's going to do. the more he focuses on the second term the better. >> people want to know where we're going. >> it's politically true. >> it's also the country's desperate for tell me where you're going to go. >> yeah. >> i want to follow up with that. it's one of the things that astounds me about both of these guys, you listen to mitt romney, and he's talking like it's 1994. you listen to barack obama, he's talking like it's 2008. nobody's talking about what's ahead of us.

it is so frustrating because you guys go out and talk to people, they want to hear what's going to happen in 10, 20 years from now. >> true. >> i go to the most -- i go to the most conservative groups, the most conservative groups and i'll say, you know what we have to do, do what i did. invest in our roads, we have to invest in r and d, invest in this, that and the other. i say to democrats we're going to have to tackle entitlements, medicare, we have to tackle -- you can tell people the truth and you know what, you guys see it. they go, you're exactly right! but we got these politicians that are talking like it's 20 years ago, nobody's telling us about the future. >> i hate to be an lsu man, actually agree with somebody from alabama -- >> i know. >> we are both with you. count us as both of you with us. >> as long as it's about the future of the middle class, they're with you. >> don't tell anybody in louisiana that, but yeah, the person that grabs the next four years is the person that's going

to win this thing. it's close enough that the campaign or the candidate isn't going to matter. >> the problem for the romney campaign is that a bulk of their supporters so far are people who just don't like obama. they don't necessarily like mitt romney. >> well, i mean -- >> which leads into this whole -- >> we can talk about problems. i've said it about of and james carville said it today, i can't say it enough, barack obama has to stop talking about 2009 and 2010. he's got to start talking about 2017, 2018, 2020. >> yeah. >> and it just doesn't happen. >> it's like bill clinton in '92 telling people they were going to -- >> i mean i've never seen this -- >> passive agreement here. >> wow. >> but romney, if he's talking about what he's going to do in the next four years, talk about health care, we were a going to do the following things to continue to improve this, and then romney's talking about why we should have never done it in the first place. people say this guy is thinking ahead. if obama is talking about 2008, romney is saying this is how i want to make the world look different in 2017 -- >> don't be afraid of the

future. >> james carville -- >> make yourself at home there. put your feet up, why don't you. the book is "it's the middle class stupid." james carville and stan greenberg, thank you very much. stay with us. up next, campaign sugar daddies political reporter matt viser breaks down the top donors of the presidential race on both sides and what's behind their big dollar contributions. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. managing my diabetes is part of my life, between taking insulin and testing my blood sugar... is this part of your life? freestyle lite test strips? why, are they any... beep! wow, that hardly needs any blood! yeah... and the unique zipwik tab targets the blood and pulls it in. so easy. freestyle lite needs just a third the blood

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welcome back to "morning joe." 24 past the hour. joining us political reporter for "the boston globe" matt viser who has a piece out in the latest "town and country" issue about the top campaign sugar daddies.

with us in new york james carville and stan greenberg and mike barnicle, just barely. jump in from new york when you want. matt, lay the groundwork for the piece you wrote and who are the biggest sugar daddies? >> we sort of looked at some of the names people know, the coke brothers and things like that. we sort of broadened it to talk about others that people may not be as familiar with. new this year, for example, bill maher, weighing in with a million dollars for the democratic super pac for president obama. there's george clooney getting involved a lot. and then i mean some names here that people in politics may know, bob perry, you know, has been a republican donor for a long time, but weighing in heavily this year and foster freeze who made news around the time with rick santorum. >> foster freeze, my fav. >> the numbers, how do they look, the last election was pricier than ever. this one will blow that away? >> even more so.

particularly with the role of super pacs making this election, unlike the ones that preceded it. and the republicans right now, president obama yesterday sent out a fund-raising e-mail saying we will be outraised. you're seeing this sort of shift a little bit toward mitt romney and the republicans are raising a lot more money. at least over the past two months. they're far ahead of the game in the super pac realm by like three to one, republicans have more money. >> it's interesting, though, a lot of emphasis has been placed on these big donors. and certainly much more on the republican side and the democrats as you pointed out -- >> the emphasis or more money? >> both. the emphasis or more money relative to the republican donors. the reality of it is, the obama team is doing pretty well with small dollar donors as well. i've always argued, it's going to be a bigger -- as big a play this fall in terms of keeping the obama team in the game, simply because they waited so late to get into the big dollar

donor sweepstakes by, you know, skewing those super pacs and then in january of this year saying we can do it. has that -- will that and has it had an effect so far? is it something they can make up with the small dollar donors? >> even the fund-raising e-mail i mentioned that obama sent out asked for $3 donations at the bottom. we're going to be outraised, give $3. it is like obama has been far ahead in terms of the small dollar donations and he also sort of starts this, if it's a marathon, starts with sort of a three-mile advantage. he's been doing this a lot longer. >> look at the june fund-raising numbers. mitt romney doing very well, and i'm actually -- just this week reporting that small donations for mitt romney are way up. and that he's actually breaking into that sphere. >> he's breaking into it, but he's breaking into it much later than the president. the president is targeting 3 million plus small dollar donors. a big number of people who can give over and over again. as opposed to the single donation from adelson which is going to be $10 million.

>> right. >> and the other thing is, that the president has some huge advantages. there is that big blue and white plane and all the apparatus of incumbency and we've seen the way that he was able to pivot on immigration. he can do things in terms of policy. >> right. >> as he did, which can seize the initiative. >> let's go to mike barnicle in new york. >> well, i have one thought based upon looking at matt's piece and one question for these two guys here. my thought is that i'm going to invest in duracell batteries because by the end of october i'm going to make sure that clicker of mine is working so when the commercials come on and they're going to be wall to wall, be i can get to "sports center" okay. >> particularly in october. >> small donors, how do you -- how does any candidate, specifically the president of the united states here, attract and keep small donors? >> that's a whole science. these guys have lists that they pay for, they mind the list, they send them out.

it's an entire formula. you have to have them for a long time because they got the return rate figured out by this and that. that's a science and i'm not on top of it. >> obama has been, you know, really, really strong. my question is, in a presidential election, how big does the money advantage on either side matter? particularly in the battleground states? such saturation right now, right now, right now you wake up in ohio, you've been watching two months wall-to-wall advertising and we'll see it until november. i question i think real people, you know, pull back. i think in a presidential level, i think the conventions but above all the debates, will be decisive. but there's lots of er races out there, control of the senate and control of the us. >> romney is raising more money right now. obama is spending more money right now. romney will have more money at

the end. some people tell me as a democrat i shouldn't worry about that. those people are not convincing me. >> i think you're absolutely right. >> i'm -- >> i'm listening and i want to be -- >> you never believe -- >> i want to be convinced. >> you never believe -- >> i think all elections presidential dollar counts less in any other race but when spb somebody has a lot more, i would rather have more in october than the other guy. >> isn't having a ton of money left in the last two weeks in october the equivalent of having mariano rivera in your bull pen? >> it helps -- >> when that last debate happens you can see people just begin to decide. you know, i just think -- >> let's look, gentlemen, swing state ad spending. reports this morning mitt romney is pouring as much as $5 million into eight swing states for tv ads that could begin as early as as today. this is the saturation effect. beginning right now. at the same time "the washington post" reports that president

obama has spent $91 million on ads in swing states while romney has spent just $23 million as of friday. but romney is getting a major boost from super pacs and other non-profit groups as we mentioned in these eight states, in florida alone, the president's campaign has spent a reported $17 million while romney's campaign has spent just $2 million but gop super pacs have spent nearly $13 million. you could argue, if people buy the ads, filling the void there for team romney. andrea? >> if you just look back at what happened four years ago, the obama campaign so vastly outspent john mccain. >> yeah. >> they had such huge resources. at the same time to stan greenberg's point, john mccain started sligd with the collapse of lehman and his response to the economic crisis. if he had had a spindifferent response perhaps the obama huge spending advantage would not have made a difference. >> if you look at, james

carville, what turned that election, did it have anything to do with ads or did it have to do with two event, sarah palin and the economy. >> look, i think it had something to do with both of them. their political scientists that say this thing is predetermined no matter what. i don't agree with these people. i think in election cycles at this time we know who's going to win. 2008 was one of those cycles. this is one of those that is not. the campaign and candidate performance in this race i think is going to matter. there's no way that i can look you in the camera and say barack obama is going to win this election. i can say that i think i would rather be us than romney right now but that's as far as i'm willing to go. >> that early spending in the battleground states has given the president a lead there and i think that investment and a differential advantage. i think will carry. >> romney has a pretty hard definition now. i mean they've hardened up the definition of who mitt romney is. i'm not saying he can't undo some of it. >> rich guy.

>> cares about the rich people. that's their thing. primarily who he is. not about workers. >> michael steele. >> and i want to ask you, where do you see all of this ending at the end of the day? you've done a great piece in expose something of the players and the dollars that they're bringing into this. how do you see this as a lot of my democrat friends on the left would like to talk about, the corrupting influence of these types of dollars coming into the campaign, do you see that? is there -- is there real evidence that, you know, an adelson or a clooney fund-raiser is $15 million by the way, is having that kind of corrupting impact on the process some. >> it will be interesting to see. sort of the piece doesn't get into this quite as much, but the -- like what do these people want? what does shelden adelson want? >> you know what he wants. he wants policy relating to israel. >> george clooney has a want too, related to sudan or things like that. it's also kind of the hollywood aspect of entertaining and is having the president to your home.

i think there's also that aspect to it too. i don't know where it leads in terms of corruption or if we end up with drastically different campaign finance laws as -- after this election. you know, but i think it will be close in terms of the amount of money that each side spends because romney's been so good over these past two months at closing the gap that obama had to start with. >> right. >> matt, thanks very much. the article in the new issue of "town and country." matt viser. want to go back to new york to stan greenberg and james carville, and get some final thoughts on it's the middle class, stupid, and what re-elect obama the campaign could learn from the book? >> well, if the election is about the middle class, you know, we know that the democrats enjoy a double-digit advantage. this -- people are really serious about this problem and, you know, as he tries to make this election more about the middle class, more and more about the future, creates a debate, one in which romney is

saying the job numbers are a kick in the middle class, the president on his day is talking about [ inaudible ] for the middle class, the more that's a discussion the more the election tilts in his favor. >> i think we have a humanitarian crisis in the middle class. i think people are fighting day and night to stay in it. i think anybody that recognizes that and says look, i'm thinking about you and i'm going to think about you for a long time and we're going to do the following things to try to rebuild this middle class and make this country become a country we want it to be i think is going to be successful. i think there's a lot of stuff in this book that will point that out. it's a tragic situation we're faced with and they need to acknowledge it. >> james carville and stan greenberg, the book again is "it's the middle class stupid." gentlemen, thanks for being with us. come back. >> thank you. >> still ahead, dr. zbigniew brzezinski and jane harman join us on the set in washington. "morning joe" is back in a moment. [ buzz ] off to work!

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russia is working to step up its leverage over the conflict in syria by sending nearly a dozen warships to the region. some of those ships are expected to dock at the syrian port of tartuse on the mediterranean. it's moscow's only foreign military outside of the soviet union. syria is a major buyer of russian weapons. today former secretary general kofi annan is set to brief the u.n. security council on the situation in syria and ask for iran to be included in a diplomatic solution. earlier this week he declared that efforts to -- i know. it's a little -- >> like why? >> that's going to be useful? >> waste of time. >> okay. wondering myself. >> state department doesn't like that at all. >> trying to preserve a u.n. brokered cease-fire that failed so far. we'll keep you posted on that and talk to my dad and jane harman. up next, after america, the new yorker's dexter filkins on the future of afghanistan and the threat of another civil war there. keep it right here on "morning joe." [ female announcer ] the power of green coffee extract

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thought they were dead. huh? [ male announcer ] should've used roundup. it kills weeds to the root, so they don't come back. roundup. no root. no weed. no problem. i am pleased to announce today that president obama has officially designated afghanistan as a major non-nato ally of the united states. please know that the united states will be your friend and your partner. we are not even imagining abandoning afghanistan. quite the opposite. we are building a partnership with afghanistan that will endure far into the future. >> there's a saying in farsi. [ speaking foreign language ] >> when the friend is around,

we'll be here again. >> thank you. >> thank you very much. >> over the weekend, at a news conference in kabul, secretary of state hillary clinton solidified the u.s.'s commitment to afghanistan after combat troops withdraw in 2014, but what does that promise actually mean in practice? here with us now, staff writer for "the new yorker" dexter fill kins who paints a grim picture of afghanistan's future in the in the latest issue he writes in part this, a coup is one of the big possibilities. a coup or civil war. a former american official who was based in kabul and has since left the country told me, it's clear that the main factions assume that civil war is a possibility and they are hedging their bets. and, of course, once people assume that cril war is going to happen, then that can sometimes be a self-fulfilling prophecy. after 11 years, nearly 2,000 americans killed, 16,000 americans wounded nearly $400

billion spent and more than 12,000 afghan civilians dead since 2007, the war in afghanistan has come to this. the united states is leading mission not accomplished. dexter, welcome back to the show. it's always good to have you. mission not accomplished, why? because civil war is inevitable? because spiraling out of control is inevitable at this point still, even now? >> no, no, no. i wouldn't say that. i think -- i mean to answer your question, mission not accomplished, we're leaving. we are leaving as we speak. i remember one of the places where i embedded with the american troops they were bulldozing the base and handing over the area to the afghans. no. i mean we're leaving for the most part. we'll probably end up with maybe 10 or 12 or 15,000 troops there, but we have not -- i mean, we haven't defeated the taliban. and that -- you know, that's the main thing. we're handing that off to the

afghan army and hoping that, you know, we're hoping they can carry the ball. >> dexter, you were -- joe scarborough here in d.c. you were reporting in afghanistan back in the 1990s, well before 9/11. you know the country as well as any american reporter, probably far better. the mission -- the mission wasn't to beat the taliban when we started this. our mission when we started this was to destroy al qaeda in afghanistan and we did that. we changed the mission, didn't we? that's the biggest problem? >> well, you're right about that -- >> not the biggest problem, but in defining why the mission has not been accomplished, it's because we changed that mission. >> well, we did, except -- you're absolutely right. we went there to destroy al qaeda and we did a pretty good job of doing that. but if you look back to 9/11, al eda had a sanctuary in afghanistan because of the chaos

there, because of the civil war. they were able to basically occupy that space because the government there basically collapsed, and so the danger and what's really -- this is a conversation which every afghan is having, i just tapped into it, the danger is that happens again, that you basically have a collapse of the state that follows our pullout. and that's what -- i mean, that's what the u.s. has to guard against. >> that's inevitable, though. back when president obama was calling afghanistan the good war, back when everybody in the media was calling afghanistan the good war, you were coming on our show and telling us horrifying things about afghanistan, that -- this is -- this is not even a country and i think you spit out all these things saying i don't know, like 14% of people have ever seen a radio before. i mean all of these crazy statistics that just showed that these -- this was not iraq, and

this was not going to be managed and we weren't going to be able to make things better. >> well, it's a hard place. it's a hard place. i mean just to give you one of those statistics that always sticks in my mind, 4% of the country is land. 4%. the rest is desert and mountains and landlocked. it's an incredibly hard place. every country that's ever tried to go in there has basically failed. doesn't mean we're going to fail and i wouldn't say civil war there is inevitable. i think what we do need to think about as a country is, you know, after 11 years, is what we've accomplished and whether what we've built, the state that we've built there, can stand on its own? because if it can't stand on its own, we're going to be -- we're going to be right back to where we were when we went in. >> dexter, andrea mitchell here. in your piece you talk to afghans who see the civil war as being inevitable and talk about

the return of the militias that existed before, before the u.s. arrived. what about the karzai government, the central government? how much of the country does that government even control, and will the afghan army and the afghan police be loyal to anyone after we leave? >> well, i mean that's the mean $64,000 question. we built this thing, right, we built the afghan state. and it is -- not pretty, you know. it is a -- bais that army goingo fight? can it hold together when we leave? that is what they are trying to do. i mean, there is an enormous project going on across -- i think we are spending $11 billion a year to stand up an afghan army. it is about 350,000 police and soldiers. that's the big question. a lot of peel -- if you had american commander on the show

here, he would say, you know, we have a lot of confidence if they can take over. when we leave. i -- down on the ground, where i went, i didn't see that. i found it to be much more problematic and much more difficult. and we have about 2 1/2 years to go until we stop fighting. i mean, that's when the americans stop fighting. what happens then? >> let's say on the ground in afghanistan, let's stay with the army. you have an afghan citizen telling you about the afghan army that, you know, they get tired when they do tv commercials. they are looking off the piece you hear from everyone that has been there, you are looking at a huge potential for tribal warfare. pashtuns, various tribes. and the potential for par tugs

country eventually. $11 billion. a country that's largely ill literali -- i illiterate. a young widow being presented an american flag, her husband having been killed. army ranger in afghanistan. what do you tell people in this country about our effort there? >> it is hard. it is really hard. i mean -- i -- i do not make an argument and i would not make an argument about staying. i mean -- it is -- it seems to me when you are there, it is the definition of quagmire. we can't stay and we can't leave. we are really in a very difficult spot right now. the plan is -- it is a good plan. on paper. i mean, it always is. let the afghans take over. basically we will pay them to do it. we will finance their army. then can't pay for it

themselves. we are going to train this army and hand it off to them. that's the plan. you know. it is a good plan on paper. the problem in afghanistan, it is always the problem, when you get down there on the ground, you know, the plan doesn't match the reality. that's the part that's really worrying me. >> dexter, thank you. the article is in the new issue of "the new yorker." it is good to have you back on the show. >> thank you. >> we will see you soon. >> always great to have you here, dexter. >> stay with us. you are watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

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on tomorrow's show we will talk to arianna huffington and al hunt. also, foreign policy expert robin wright and accessy gorney weav ash tress actress segourney wea.

♪ 0-2, the count. one out. fly ball into left. can't see it. it goes behind him. it is two on with one out. and no point -- at no point did he act like he couldn't see it until it landed behind him. >> yeah. nobody there to help him. too deep for the shortstop to come out. he lost the ball. >> good morning. it is 8:00 on the east coast. 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. time to wake up. a live look at washington, d.c.

it is good to get up and watch us. andrea mitchell, michael steele, jonathan capehart and mike barnicle in new york. >> the national league didn't look like aaa. did they. they came right out of the box. verlander put eight on the board. that game was over 16 seconds into the game. >> okay. back in the '70s, back -- i guess even before then, everybody stopped and watched the all-star game. is it as big a deal today as it was back in the '60s and '70s? >> no. >> does anybody care anymore? >> i'm sure people care. i mean, you know -- i care. >> i care. >> you know, legitimate baseball fans care. but it certainly is not a big deal as it used to be because of interleague play. we see different players from different teams in both leagues all during the year. you can get any game you want on

your baseball package on cable. it doesn't have the same ait used to certainly. >> yeah. the battle over these bush tax cuts -- >> here we go again. yes. now it is -- because we were talking yesterday on the set in new york about the limit, $2 on 50,000 limit. that could come back. it is growing over how much of the bush era tax cuts to extend just for the middle class or perhaps for the wealthiest americans as well. both candidates in both 42nd president, bill clinton to frame their strategies yesterday. take a listen. >> the very idea of raising taxes on small business and job creators at the very time we need more jobs is the sort of thing only an extreme liberal can come up with. this is the sort of thing that used to be the democratic party and the times passed. bill clinton called himself a new democrat. he put that behind him.

he bleefd in smaelieved in smal government. get going with trade, lower taxes. look, new democrats have done some good things. a lot of republicans have done some good things. but this old-style liberalism of bigger and bigger government and bigger and bigger taxes has got to end and we will end it in november! >> anybody making over $250,000 a year, including me, we would go back to the tax rates not -- we were paying under bill clinton. which, by the way, was time when our economy created nearly 23 million new jobs. biggest budget surplus in history. and created plenty of millionaires to boot. >> i have -- first of all, back in 1999 -- >> yes. >> -- when we were all going down and would fill the tidal basin -- >> when life was good. >> -- with kerosene and dipping our torches in to make that walk up the capitol to impeach bill clinton, i never thought a republican would be invoking the good old days of bill clinton.

but much has changed in 13 years. >> strange world. >> strange world. that's right. eight years of george bush deficits will do for you. secondly, were i barack obama i might not bring up bill clinton and tax cuts because bill clinton is, of course, a guy that's -- we need to cut corporate taxes. bill clinton is the guy that says we don't need to raise taxes on anybody. i think he -- said that on cnn. it is a tougher -- it is a tougher pull for him. >> i wonder what bill clinton would think of what the president is proposing right now and perhaps maybe it is a very good idea -- >> he's against. >> it and say nice things about bill clinton. talk about how much he loves bill clinton and then tell him to keep his mouth shut, michael steele. >> i think that's a fair point. i'm intrigued by the whole idea of this conversation to begin with. invocation of bill clinton is nice. but what they fail to

acknowledge is that what spurred that growth thatter talking about is not the tax rates the top earners were paying. with the cut in capital gains. that spurred those owners of industry and small businesses to go in and invest in that economy that was being created in -- supplant or supported by welfare reform and the like. you have to look at the total package and what bill clinton did. he cut spending. working with newt gingrich and republican house at the time. and they -- they cut the capital gains as they increased the rates for top earners to 39%. keep this point in mind, taxes for the top rate earners go up to 43% beginning next year anyway. so now you are talking about if you want to take that number higher, you are talking close to 50% for those top earners if he gets his way, if the president gets his way. >> we don't know what will happen. there will be grand compromise. what i don't understand, though, i didn't understand before, when

the president had a chance would years ago to raise taxes on millionaires or at least take that as his position, he passed it. he did. he let that go by. i don't understand why he's not starting at a million dollars, just for purely political purposes because there are a lot of people up in massachusetts right now who are trying to decide between candidates like elizabeth warren and scott brown who are going to say i make $250,000, i have six employees. if they raise my taxes, i'm going have to let somebody go. >> joe, i mean -- you happen to be right on point here on your first day back. coming right out box. >> shocking. >> throwing fastball. >> that's shocking for any day i'm here. >> suck up. just talk. >> first of all, i don't understand the same thing but i don't -- i don't understand it because i don't know enough about it.

i'm wondering whether this is -- insistence on the president's part that the -- the ceiling be $250,000 rather than a million dollars. i'm wondering a couple of things about it. why so many democrats, democrats, want the ceiling at a million dollars rather than the president's insistence on $250,000. i'm wondering if the insistence on $250,000 comes out of focus group information that the campaign is conducting rather than sitting down and figuring out the best economic policy for this country. that, i think, is going to be a big question that will have to be answered in the next several weeks. >> i think the reason why, andr andrea, mccaskill is campaigning against missouri. i will guarantee you, because i always found them, there are people that make $250,000, $300,000, they may have three, four, five employees. you know the little nerd it is that write the columns, 2% of

the people actually file small business owner, no, that's out of the real world. it doesn't matter how they file their taxes as a business. it is still out of their pocket because they are sole proprietors. however they file it, however they give their money to the irs, so -- a tax increase takes away from the bottom line regardless. so -- >> have you the other argument as well that those t2% or 3% ar actually more of the job creators in those small businesses. look, you have claire mccaskill, bill nelson, and chuck schumer representing people in new york and he says, you know, people -- living in new york make $250,000. their expenses are huge. and they are not just business people. they are people who actually make that amount of money in two income families. >> i'm sorry. >> i want to ask what these job creators have been doing with these tax cuts so far and how -- you know, their situations have been improved greatly and how

they are hiring so many people and this would all stop. it is ridiculous. >> we are talking -- no, no, no, it is not ridiculous. >> have they worked? >> we are talking about people right now -- not talking about millionaires plus. >> i know. >> we are talking about -- >> i would prefer that. >> $250,000, $300,000 who are struggling to keep their businesses open. they are not creating jobs right now. they are struggling to keep their businesses open. >> tax cuts put in place by bush have not work. >> the tax cuts put in place by bush and forwarded by president obama -- these are really obama tax cuts -- >> haven't spurred growth have they? >> we are going through a terrible stretch right now. the question is, when you are sick, how much -- >> oh, so that concept applies to tax cuts? but it doesn't apply to the deficit and to spending. >> yeah, but -- >> because i think the liberal argument or democrats would argue you don't, you know, cut spending on certain programs

when we are in such a bad situation. same argument. >> on the $250,000 versus million dollar threshold, i'm going to add on to what barnicle said. negotiating position. president saying $250,000 -- end up at a million. this is a story on the second page two of "the washington post," federal tax rates hit 30-year low in 2009. it is a combination -- congressional budget office data. as a result of two things. tax cuts put in place by president obama. first year in office. but also, reduction in the amount of income by the wealthiest earners. so whether they are -- >> incomes dropped. >> incomes dropped by income fell 12% on average from 2007 to 2009. when republicans go out and say that the president wants to jack up taxes and raise tax owes the middle class and raise taxes on -- here you have the story,

president and administration has been saying over and over, you know -- >> but -- >> here's congressional budget office report that shows that. >> and -- he can go out and say that. but to -- the woman that owns a small business and claire mccaskill's home state that makes $265,000 last year and her receipts are down because the economy is struggling, she doesn't care what the cbo says. she knows that she can't -- and you may be right, this may be ultimately negotiations but this president has been the campaigner in chief more the past year. i'm not even asking a policy question this morning. i'm asking a political question. why in july would you put targets on the backs of a lot of small business owners at -- instead of just saying -- put in a million dollars. we are not even having this conversation. we are still talking about harper dropping the ball. >> particularly --

>> let's change the subject. >> i want to go back. that's -- you bring up a very good point and we -- debate the cbo numbers. but -- >> to answer a political question goes back inform what i said before. i wonder if it is part of a negotiating position. no matter what the president proposes, he puts the republicans on the defensive. they have to come back and say well, no, we are not going to do what you want to do. whether it is $250,000 or a million. as we have seen for at -- since at least 2010 when the new congress came in -- >> mike barnicle, if i were a republican on the campaign trail now i would have said three weeks ago i -- i didn't have a whole lot to campaign on other than overblown rhetoric. i can now talk about the obama health care tax. i don't care what mitt romney's stupid people said. obama passed and it is the law. land a health care package. >> he messed that up. >> obama is now passing trying to push again a small business tax.

i have two taxes, that's all i'm talking about in my district between now and the campaign and i -- i kick any democrat in a swing district across america. legislatively. romney can't do this but legislatively this -- this seems like the president is hurting his own cause. >> unless crew the fact that the two words that you just used are -- have been on the burner the last would minutes both have incendiary value to voters. one word is taxes. the other word is millionaire. as in se you use those two words, both sides use those words. let's see where the fire starts burning. >> that's my point! if he had made it a millionaire's tax, barack obama wins going away. the republicans are sitting there looking like the defenders of the rich. that's my whole point. if obama says we are -- if the president says -- you know what, we are going to make those

millionaires, they got away with so much over the past decade, pay their fair share, i am ending the bush tax cuts for millionaires. economic schumer's position. by the way, politically, this is -- this is the position, by the way, that -- i have been advocating for the president for two years now. even though i disagree with it. politically and he still insists on going down to 250 with the small business owners i don't understand why he wants to relitigate this because the million dollar threshold has been on the table a long time. this is not something new. the president stumbled into. he picked a fight. i think unnecessarily on the heels of the health care vote. now as you have -- >> you you a guy with me. >> as a republican, if the president made this a million as your tax, republicans would be screwed. >> a much harder -- absolutely. >> they think that -- by separate thing and saying that it is a millionaires tax, what they think the advantage that they are getting is we are

giving a tax cut to the middle income folks and -- >> right. >> -- forcing the republicans to defend the millionaires tax. that's their -- >> why not start at $1 million rather than $250,000? >> what you are doing -- michael and joe, as you are poking holes at a very good strategy and finding one thing wrong with it. >> no, i'm not. >> bottom line, this whole thing -- >>er to thing you will see -- >> no, a millionaires tax -- >> protecting the middle class. quite frankly, who is mitt romney? >> there are a lot of small business owners that reveal that they make $250,000 and employ -- >> lot of people -- >> five, six people. >> lot of money. >> exactly. they employ five, six people and make $250,000. they live in new york. they live in washington. they live in san francisco. they live in philadelphia. they live in baltimore. they live in charlotte. they don't feel rich. >> to joe's -- >> they feel lucky, like my dad felt lucky. my dad made a couple hundred

thousand dollars a year and felt like he was the luckiest guy on earth as a small business owner. you know. at the end. >> to your point, there's going to be another test today on the house floor of whether democrats in swing districts are going to stick with the president and that's on the health care. >> explain that. >> they are going to -- the republicans are forcing this vote which is purely symbolic. it is all politics. a vote on repealing health care. they know they can't win it. not with the senate and not with the president. veto ending word to get to it which will not get to his desk. they are forcing a lot of democrats to take an uncomfortable vote against what is in some districts an unpopular health care law. >> i see it as another -- republicans to look at obstructionists again and waste time. >> i hate to sound like -- >> mike, answer if you have the answer, whomever. i don't mean to sound like -- like a broken record here. why not make your life easier? why not help claire mccaskill?

why not help moderate democrats across america? and set the limit at a million dollars instead of $250,000? >> that's a question for the administration. but clearly, the administration, re-election campaign has -- information that shows them that $250,000 and -- overall message wh what mika was talking about, that overall message plays better and helps -- >> that doesn't trigger politically. $250,000 is -- just as good for them as a million. is that what you are saying? >> it has to be. the president has been harping on the $250,000 threshold not just today but he has been on this for at least a year. >> do you agree $250,000, the white house had probably has polling that shows $250,000, even if you are a small business owner, living in boston and have you five, six employees, is

rich? >> yes. i think that it is coming out of stuff like polling and focus group data, yeah. i absolutely do. unless the -- unless the end game is for him to publicly put it on the republicans at some point in august or early september when congress has reconvened, saying, okay, fine, they want a million dollars, i will give you a million dollars. you have to give us the democrats, the middle class, why. you have to do this. you want your million? here what's the middle class really needs? and see what they do then. >> when we come back, from syria and china to egypt and the eurozone, we have a lot to discuss with former national security adviser brzezinski and jane harman. we ripped ryan apart over his ears. it was really bad. >> what do you mean? >> i don't know if he will ever talk to me again. because he could fly with them. >> you were kid.

>> i know. >> why -- >> i feel bad. it was terrible. >> you made fun of him because of -- >> we were singing ♪ m-i-c-k-e-y ♪ >> here's bill karins. it is great to have you back, buddy. >> thanks, guys. he does what i do. maybe he doesn't listen all the time. helps you get through these things. good morning, everyone. we are watching south florida this morning. all places, the worst weather by far. just a shield of rain. all the way from west palm beach to hollywood, ft. laud eerdalla. remember the heat wave in the middle portion of the country, that shifted to the west. record heat. 114 in vegas. 102 in salt lake city. what a period of hot weather we had in areas of utah. fire danger high today. we are going to be bo b 101 in salt lake city. our friends in seattle, they had a very chilly summer, they are going to see a sunny 83 today. typical mid july forecast, warm

with a few thunderstorms. that's needed rainfall. louisiana, arkansas, mississippi and alabama. we are hoping some of that rain can make its way to the ohio valley where the crops are suffering especially the corn. that could happen tomorrow. we will leave you with a shot of washington, d.c. your streak of 90-degree heat is over. for today we will call it 89. the medicare debate continues in washington... ...more talk on social security... ...but washington isn't talking to the american people. [ female announcer ] when it comes to the future of medicare and social security, you've earned the right to know. ♪ ...so what does it mean for you and your family? [ female announcer ] you've earned the facts. ♪ washington may not like straight talk, but i do. [ female announcer ] and you've earned a say.

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if we do not make a real effort to resolve this issue peacefully and it were to get out of hand and spread to the region, it can lead to consequences that none of us could imagine. so let's work together to bring peace and stability to syria. >> that was u.n. peace envoy kofi annan in tehran yesterday calling for nations, including iran, to work together to find a peaceful solution in syria. joining us now here in the washington bureau, former national security adviser for president carter, dr. zbigniew brzezinski. what are you concerned about? already. first of all, dad is the author of "strategic vision america and the prices of global power." buy it. bestseller. also with us the director, president and ceo of the winter wilson international center for scholars, jane harman.

what are you worried about? >> your mom is out of the country. >> that's true. >> he is a bachelor. look at him. look at him. no tie. he's -- >> different lifestyle. >> different lifestyle. >> he hasn't changed in 30 years. he doesn't even know how to get himself a cup of coffee. he is beside himself. >> without your mom? >> that's correct. >> we are going to talk about where your mom is. >> she is in dresden. >> doing what? >> she has an art show there, sculpture. family trees. images of all of us inside trees. a fabulous picture of myself with my dad. >> amazing picture of your dad. your mother somehow found the worst picture i have ever seen taken of you and put it inside that tree. >> that's right. >> that's one of the most extraordinary d extraordinary -- we have so much to talk about. extraordinary. her family -- >> it is a play on the word family trees.

family trees. then she has the tree trunks, they are hollowed. within each tree trunk there is a full life-sized photograph of one of us. >> i have some of the trunks that she has at the embassy in stockholm. >> we will get to that in a second. >> why? >> while i ask your father the first question. you go through your iphone. >> i can find it. >> she does -- hollow. she does not follow instructions here. >> isn't this cool? these are her sculptures. >> my daughter watching that. on tv. right there. gorgeous. >> extraordinary work. >> okay. you can now ask him the question. >> why don't. >> did you so, dad, this is dexter filkins from "the kwp new yorker." this is about afghanistan. and -- our commitment there and our moving out. a coup is one of the big possibilities. a coup or civil war, a former american official who was based

in kabul and has since left the country to help me. it is clear that the main factions assumed civil war is a possibility and that they are hedging their bets. of course, once people assume that civil war is going to happen, then that can sometimes be a self-fulfilling prophecy. after 11 years, nearly 2,000 americans killed, 16,000 americans wounded, nearly $400 billion spent, more than 12,000 afghan civilians dead since 2007, the war in afghanistan has come to this. the united states is leaving. mugs not accomplished. >> is that a fair assessment? >> in a sense it is a fair assessment. it begs another question. you know, what was the mission? >> what was it? >> originally the mission was to throw out or destroy al qaeda and to remove taliban from power. that was doable. i was on the margins of the decision mixing process at the time. i was called in under henry kissinger and so forth. my recommendation was go in and do it and get out.

give them financial assistance but don get involved. we decided to be more ambitious, to clear the taliban out of all of afghanistan, to destroy al qaeda. and to create a democratic constitutional state. and that got us involved in a much larger undertaking which ends up mission not accomplished. that's true. there is a larger picture, however, involved here. by now, the region is itself unstable. and after we leave, i think the countries in that region, particularly major powers near it, would have to assume some responsibility. otherwise the whole region will get inflamed. >> jane, we had dr. brzezinski on three years ago and this was back when afghanistan was the good war. and -- dr. brzezinski said we have policymakers that are -- mixing al qaeda and the taliban up. they don't understand al qaeda wants to blow up buildings in

new york city and washington. the taliban do not. and yet, we have been suck flood that war against the taliban. >> i agree. i think that we did not -- we way underestimated the different forces in afghanistan. i would make a few additional points. by the way, we worked together in the carter white house a thousand years ago. >> you get high school students from across america. and -- >> did he take the ac and put the light bulb by it? >> i don't comment on covert activity. >> back to afghanistan, i think our strategy was wrong. i thought this for years. counterinsurgency strategy was way too ambitious for afghanistan. i think that has not succeeded. but in counterterror terms, i think that we are accomplishing what we need to. the big problem going forward is the endemic corruption there. if that can't be overcome the

election in 2014, which we are trying to help prepare them for, will be another corrupt election and things will slide downhill quickly. there was a suggestion three years ago. i'm sure as big remembzbig reme have a -- we -- try to achieve a confederation there. not a national government. but three split parts of afghanistan held together. and that never happened. and i think that that might have worked better. >> so -- what -- let's say the worst case scenario comes true, there is a civil war. talk about what happens around afghanistan because you talk about the -- entire region being up for grabs. >> in violence to some extent. religiously inspired, to some extent, stimulated by ethnic

differences. it is going to spill over into kazakhstan, uzbekistan. some parts of russia would be affected. similarly, pakistan could be more destabilized. iranians would be involved because they have a stake in -- afghanistan, too. with some shiites in afghanistan. in effect, the region will become volatile, explosive, dangerous. and they will spill over into the persian gulf and affect the middle east which has its own dynamics of unrest at work. and this is why what we are facing in the region, not only in afghanistan, but in regards to iran, in regards to syria, is a new reality, very different from last century's. it was century of a struggle for global demolition and midge or powers could impose themselves. as they did after world war i, world war ii. dominate. we, the french and british and others. this is now a century of global political awakening, volatility, and no major power dominant or

being capable of domination. and, therefore, we cannot imposed on in that part of the world. together with the french and british. >> that raises, i think, a significant question where you look at the elections in egypt. and the fact that with a new president there, the parliament now asserting itself to your point. how do you see that being played out, both of you, given all of the dynamics that were just -- >> i think that there's -- somewhat of a good news story in egypt. i mean, politics are at work. secretary decline tlon there on saturday. i think that's a forcing mechanism to get the two sides, more than two sides. but at least the get military which is a secular force. and the muslim brotherhood led now -- well, technically resigned but was in the muslim brotherhood to resolve differences. the -- the irony is the supreme constitutional court is operating without a

constitution. so -- what role is it playing? stacked with mubarak supporters. and i -- i just predict that all of this noise will lead to something better because in the end, that government has to deliver on the economy. it is like our country. if they don't, they are out. and i think that will motivate people to come together and rye to take that very promising place to where it should be. >> dr. brzezinski, where do you see it going? >> i think egypt is a country of a real sense of history. and -- it stands apart from the other arab countries. it is major historical reality. and that's a source of some comfort p. it is going to be increasing. that's an unavoidable reality. it will either be run by muslim brotherhood that is more or less more moderate than other muslim organizations, it could be driven to extremism if we

mishandle it. or governed by the army. in which before too long, if it is governed by the army, which will have to use force, the generals at the top who are now in mid 70s, partial generals, partial politicians, partial businessmen are going to be replaced by some uprising within the military led by a colonel with a beard. >> right. >> you know what the beard stands for in the muslim world. so -- i think that islamic future for egypt sun avoidable. sit going to be relatively moderate or extremist? i think we have to be careful how we play so we don't play into the hands of the extremist. >> a point about the islamists and having -- political islam is not necessarily bad. these people are inside the tent trying to work through democratic small institutions. instead of being outside of the tent like al qaeda trying to blow it up. and there are many strains of islam, political islam, wilson

center, you will hear about it tomorrow. edited by robin wright publish ad book called "the islamists are coming." even in the muslim brotherhood like in our political parties, there are different wings and so as that plays out, there really is the possibility if i weren't an optimist i wouldn't have served in congress so long, moderate strain. >> or like me, nothing better to do. >> i wouldn't say that. but -- congratulations, by the way, on this fabulous show. especially for bringing women on to talk about -- >> got to get all my points in. >> next time -- >> hello, mika, i'm qualified. i appreciate you have richard haass on and dr. brzezinski but i will be on the next show. >> next show i will be talking about fashion. >> not bad. not bad. at any rate, there could be a better future here. look at libya. i'm sure you are going to talk about that one day. the -- victor that seems to be

emerging is secular. the muslim brotherhood did not win in the recent election in libya. there will be different flavors throughout this region. and we have to be patient. we don't control the outcome here. we can try to help shape it. but we need to be on the right side of this. we need to applaud the hunger for freedom. >> the point just made is very important. we don't control the outcome. that's true. egypt. that's true of iran and that's true of syria. and that's true of afghanistan. we have to draw lessons from that 37 if we overdo or overreach -- >> the days of the u.s. role in nation building with the next administration whether it is barack obama or mitt romney, are those days -- you think over? and that we do now take this new approach of recognizing the globalization and the politics of globalization? >> solitary unilateral nation build soefrg. to the extent it is possible,

international community and particularly major powers within it have to accommodate and try to stabilize the global condition. unilateral dictation. >> that's why i'm optimistic. the neighborhood in the middle east has some stake in future stability. otherwise, there will never be opportunity for the millions and millions growing up there. i think that the new -- those hungering for freedom get that. >> jane harman, thank you so much. future fashion czar. >> exactly. we are going to start a fashion segment. >> no tie. oh, my. oh, my. >> i will make a confession. this morning i took a look. joe, no tie. i was already dressed. i had a tie on. i took it off. >> that's his story and he is sticking with it. >> the fashion thing -- oh, my, images on the tennis court, white tennis shoes and black socks. right there. all right. former congressman jane harman, thank you. dad, thanks as well. strategic vision is the book. coming up, more on the budget

crisis, scranton, pennsylvania, where city workers had their paychecks reduced to minimum wage without warning. that and a look at the markets with big ears next on "morning joe."

it is time for business before the bell. cnbc's brian sullivan. what do you have this morning? >> well, we are talking about here, unfortunately, is more tough times in the state of california. i want to start off with this bankruptcy situation. yesterday we briefly touched on scranton which is basicly on the edge of bankruptcy. running out of money. the mayor proactively slashing all public services workers' wages to minimum wage. even though the court said they couldn't. now you have san bernardino, california, filing or ordering to file for bankruptcy protection which means it is the third california town to file for bankruptcy protection or expected to in just two weeks' time. it could be a rollout as we see more and more of this stuff makes it's easier for other city council facing tough times to perhaps make the same decision. this is going to be, i think, one of the biggest stories outside of the election in the second half of 2012.

>> where does it go? i mean, obviously this is just the beginning. you are going to see much more of this. and different versions of it. what's your prognosis? >> prognosis is we need a massive economic recovery, so some of the cities can recoup money they have lost, right. san bernardino is rolling in dough five years ago during the housing boom because a lot of people are doing that 70-mile commute to l.a. and got hit disproportionately hard and the housing market collapsed. they are $45 million in the red. scranton workers, imagine you are making $15 an hour and all of a sudden your next paycheck is $7.25 an hour. the mayor, who is a democrat, says i can't pay them if i don't do this, i don't have any money. no one knows where the money will come from. >> oh, my god. that's a really big story. >> cut in half. >> brian sullivan, thanks very much. keep us posted on that. we will see you tomorrow. we will have a look at the morning papers next on "morning joe," including joe biden trying to deepen president obama's

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♪ okay. michael steele, just us here. a look at the morning papers. take the las vegas review journal. >> reports vice president biden spent tuesday speaking to the hispanic community las vegas. biden took a jab admit romney over his stance on illegal immigration policy. and his refusal to turn over more of his tax returns. and then there was this moment when he recounted a moment from

his childhood. >> it was wonderful for children, having your grandpop living with you, aunt, bright uncle. wall ofs were awful thin. i wonder how my parents did it but that's a different story. i know you don't know anything about that. i know none of you in your families have done the same thing. understand that at all. i know that. >> oh, joe biden. michael steele, what's in "usa today"? >> "usa today," ohio man cleaning out his grandfather's attic discovered baseball cards dating back to material 1900s. the cards are in mint condition and include names like cobb, cy young. experts confirm the cards are real and worth about, get this, 3 mil. >> take the san francisco newspaper. >> san francisco, the ban has

just gone into effect. there's already a lawsuit claiming the ban on fatty goose liver is unconstitutional. imagine. in a restaurant on federal land is even trying to get an exemption. >> you know what? >> got to love it. >> you are good. you are good. >> best. >> seriously. like some people can't do that. some people could do it and some people can't. up next, best of late night. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs.

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no root. no weed. no problem. 0-2, the count. one out. runner at first. fly ball into left. harper can't see it. it goes behind him and it is two on and one out. >> nice. real nice. time now to talk about what we learned today. and since i don't know what i learned, i really don't, when i look at this, it is symbolic of everything in washington. i'm going to turn to my new republican analyst that i'm breaking in here on "morning joe," her name is aurora. that's my niece. she is still on swing. i will ask her another question. aurora, is mitt romney going to release his tax returns?

aurora, are republicans going to compromise on taxes? [ laughing ] she's so good. i'm telling you. she knows stuff. >> she gets the joke. >> she knows stuff. >> she knows stuff. >> what did you learn today? >> i learned despite what everybody says it really is the middle class, stupid. and i think that segment was right on point. whoever can capture that moment with the middle class, they win. >> michael steele, thanks very much. if it is way too early, it is time for "morning joe. yts" but now it is time for "the dai daily rundown" with chuck todd. >> republicans get ready for yet another try at repealing the president's health care law. how hard will they push on this into november? mitt romney beats back speculation on who he will pick as his running mate and when. could it come sooner than we

think? we are in a 96-hour window, folks. president obama touts a new tax cut pitch. the mayor of joe biden's hometown has to make drastic moves to try on balance the books. folks, this is a story we are keeping an eye on as far as the national political debate is concerned. good morning from washington. it is wednesday, july 11, 2012. i'm chuck todd. boy, have we packed a great show for you. let's get to my first read of the morning. in just over an hour, mitt romney will speak to the naacp's annual convention in houston. likely to bring a message about economic empowerment to the nation's premier civil rights group. 2008, john mccain won just 4% of african-american voters. down from the already dismal 11% george w. bush picked up in 2004. romney speaks today as less about the probably impossible task of moving african-american vote nears his column than it is about making his candidacy more appealing to w